Analyzing Fixture Difficulty
As the Premier League returns from the international break, the schedule intensity varies significantly across clubs. By calculating the average rating of a team’s next five opponents on a global scale of 1-100, we can identify which squads face the most challenging path ahead. This methodology highlights where the most difficult tests and potential points-scoring opportunities lie for each side. We use the Opta Power Rankings to find out. Those two clubs sit in the top four of the Premier League table as things stand and have shot up the global Power Rankings following their impressive starts.
The Toughest Schedules
- Liverpool: Ranked as having the most difficult upcoming run. The Reds face high-stakes home matches against Manchester City and Arsenal, alongside other testing encounters.
- Nottingham Forest: Faces the second-hardest set of five fixtures, featuring daunting clashes with both Arsenal and Manchester City.
- Brighton: Currently ranked seventh globally, the Seagulls hold the third-hardest schedule, which includes back-to-back high-profile games against Liverpool and other top-tier opponents.
While Liverpool faces a difficult period, they previously navigated the statistically easiest opening five games of the season. Meanwhile, Brighton remains one of the league’s most aggressive and highest-scoring teams with 16 goals, though their recent success against Arsenal surprised many observers who predicted a decline in form. Though, some teams are going to have a much tougher time of it than others, looking at their prospective fixture lists. With Brentford not far behind in 13th, brighton are now as high as seventh in the world. Along with an away game against Ipswich on MD8, as one of the clearest places to grab points during a difficult spell, he’ll be eyeing that one.
Form and Tactical Challenges
Aston Villa has encountered a difficult start to their domestic campaign, evidenced by a league-worst expected goals difference of -4.35. They have struggled to create clear opportunities, recording the fewest shots (48), shots on target (12), and touches in the opposition box (81). These issues are likely compounded by significant summer squad turnover under Unai Emery.
Leeds United remains one of only six unbeaten teams, but their stability faces an immediate threat. A primary concern is their upcoming trip to face Arsenal, a team against whom manager Mikel Arteta boasts a 100% win rate across four league meetings, representing his joint-best record against any manager in the top flight. But first, Oliver Glasner will travel back to his former club Crystal Palace on Matchday 6.
Opportunities for Points
For Fantasy Premier League managers, Fulham presents a compelling case with a favorable run of fixtures. They are set to face each of the three newly promoted sides over the next three matchdays, followed by a test against Aston Villa. Similarly, Coventry City is showing signs of recovery under Frank Lampard after securing their first win of the season against Nottingham Forest, with three of their next five games scheduled at home. Giving us a nice, chunky run of games to analyse, there are five more matchdays before the next pause for international action.
Newcastle United sits ninth despite a curious start under manager Matthias Jaissle. While their actual performance metrics suggest they have ridden their luck, they possess the second-easiest upcoming fixture list of any team. Tottenham, currently under pressure to improve, sees their next five matches as a potential catalyst for a turnaround. With an average opponent rating of 91.9, the next few weeks are critical for their season trajectory.
Upcoming Match Schedule
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