Premier League History: Can High Point Tallies Predict Title Success?

Published: November 13, 2026, 9:05 am

Although the Premier League title is not officially decided during the autumn months, teams that establish a substantial cushion early in the campaign often build an almost insurmountable lead. Arsenal finds itself in such a position this term, currently sitting atop the table with 27 points after emerging victorious in nine of their first ten fixtures. Having won all but one of their opening ten matches to put themselves on top of the table with 27 points, arsenal have put themselves in that position this season. But it is possible to give yourself such a big headstart that it’s nigh-on impossible for any other team to catch you, the Premier League title isn’t won in November. Read – Premier League teams with the fewest points after 10 games that avoided relegation. Read – Nigel Martyn explains James Trafford’s biggest challenge in trying to displace Jordan Pickford. See Also – Five of the best Premier League away kits in 2026/27. Alan Shearer names Arsenal star as early ‘player of the season’ as he makes surprising PL title prediction Football365.

Historically, only four clubs have managed a stronger start at this ten-game threshold, and each of those sides ultimately secured the league trophy. Chelsea holds a notable place in record books as the first team in the Premier League era to accumulate 28 points from their first 30 available, a feat achieved during Jose Mourinho’s 2005/06 title-winning campaign.

Manchester City mirrored that 28-point start in 2011/12.

Despite falling behind rivals Manchester United during the season, they staged a dramatic late-campaign recovery to claim the title on the final day. Facebook | Instagram | Twitter | YouTube | TikTok.

City repeated this dominance in Pep Guardiola’s second season at the helm, eventually becoming the first squad to surpass the 100-point mark in a single league season. Similarly, Jurgen Klopp’s Liverpool side leveraged a magnificent start to launch their successful 2019/20 campaign, concluding the season as champions with 99 points. City did it again in Pep Guardiola’s second season in charge and went on to become the first team to break the 100-point barrier in Premier League history. A couple of years later, Jurgen Klopp’s Liverpool started magnificently to set them on their way to a first league title in 30 years, finishing on top with 99 points.

Conversely, reaching 27 points after ten games does not guarantee a trophy.

Only two previous teams hit that specific milestone, and both fell short.

Newcastle United, under the management of Kevin Keegan, infamously squandered a commanding lead to finish behind Manchester United.

More recently, Arsenal itself surrendered an early advantage during the 2022/23 season as they were caught by Manchester City.

The Gunners struggled late, losing three of their last six games—including a pivotal 4-1 loss to City—to finish as runners-up, a trend they continued for three consecutive seasons. However, Brighton are their nearest challengers and City are far from the unstoppable force that they were back then, this time around.

Current circumstances differ slightly, as Brighton sits close to the Gunners and City has shown more vulnerability than in previous years. Having already secured a title, Arsenal appears better equipped to defend its current position at the top. Cisse targeted by Arsenal, Brighton and more as Milan raise price to €60m Football Italia. Follow The Football Faithful on Social Media.

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In other football news, goalkeeper Bento’s error delayed Al-Nassr’s opportunity to secure the Saudi League title this past Tuesday, with Cristiano Ronaldo’s side held after leading 1-0 until the 53rd minute of the second half.