Table of Contents
🔍 Starting Pitchers
Tampa Bay Rays: Ryan Pepiot (5–6, 3.04 ERA)
Pepiot has been a consistent performer for the Rays, boasting a solid ERA and a strikeout rate of 24.2%. His recent outings have been impressive, including a dominant performance against the Orioles earlier this season, where he struck out 11 batters in 8 innings while allowing just 1 earned run.
Baltimore Orioles: Tomoyuki Sugano (5–4, 3.55 ERA)
The 35-year-old Japanese rookie has shown poise and control on the mound, with a respectable ERA and a low walk rate. However, his strikeout rate is modest at 14.4%, and he has allowed 14 home runs this season. Sugano’s ability to limit hard contact will be crucial against the Rays’ potent lineup.
📊 Team Stats Comparison
| Category | Rays (46–35) | Orioles (34–46) |
|---|---|---|
| Runs Scored | 4.93 | 3.00 |
| ERA | 3.80 | 4.86 |
| K/9 | 8.9 | 8.6 |
📈 Betting Insights
Moneyline: Rays –125 | Orioles +100
Run Line: Rays –1.5 (+135)
Over/Under: 9.0 runs
Key Trends:
The Rays have won 7 of their last 9 road games.
The under is 4–1 in the Orioles’ last 5 games against AL East teams.
Ryan Pepiot has struck out at least 7 opposing hitters in each of his 4 starts in June.
The Orioles have struggled offensively, averaging just 3.6 runs per game over their last 10 matchups.
🧠 Expert Prediction
Score Prediction: Rays 5, Orioles 4
Total Runs: Under 9
The Rays enter this game as slight favorites, with a 54.1% chance to win based on the moneyline odds. While the Orioles have shown resilience, their offensive struggles may hinder them against a strong Rays pitching staff.
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